|
|
Post by Iain on Mar 4, 2004 2:28:56 GMT -5
A new idea for perhaps interesting discussion amongst us about what might have happened in the Three Kingdoms era if... Every week or two once a topic has exhausted itself, a new 'what if' will be raised by someone and discussion can begin anew, hopefully others will join in making this a active topic. So an event from the book will be chosen and we shall attempt to find how much things would change stemming from this 'event' lets see if this works, I'll start off. The follow passage is from the hunting incident. A insult to the Emperor indeed and had Liu Bei not restrained Guan Yu, Cao Cao would be looking for a new place to put his hat  What if Liu Bei had not stopped Guan Yu and Cao Cao was cut down for his 'insolence'? How would this affect things?Think about the following options.. Lu Bu is defeated but Guan Du has still to happen, Yuan Shao would still be a serious threat to a leaderless Wei. Ma Teng is nearby also, he was part of the plot to remove Cao Cao. Would Liu Bei, Zhang Fei, Guan Yu and the Emperor survive? Who would rule Wei once Cao Cao was gone and would they be as capable as Cao? What about Sun Ce and Wu, he is carving out an Empire for himself now, what does he and Zhou Yu do? We are staying to the Lou GuanZhong book too with this one so no SGZ, ZZT or other history here, we are entering the 'what if?' area now...Have fun. |
|
|
|
Post by Sleipner on Mar 4, 2004 10:46:46 GMT -5
Hmmm ........ what if? ;D
I doubt the 3 brothers would have survived, though i'm sure they would have put up a good fight!
As far as Guan Du is concerned Yuan Shao lost the battle not Cao Cao won the battle. He would probably have lost to Wei no matter who was in charge.
I can't remember but did X.Dun lead much? Cao Ren would be an obvious choice - being a relative and high rating general. (but he lacked the perception of Cao Cao)
The main benefactors would be Wu, Their would be 2 rival leaders both dead, Yuan Shao lacked the leadership to threaten and to Zhou Yu's delight Liu Bei would never have met Zhuge Liang!!
|
|
TigerLord
Fighter
Strength of the Inferno
Posts: 94
|
Post by TigerLord on Mar 4, 2004 15:04:06 GMT -5
I think things would have been tremendously different. With Cao Cao dead Wei would have been in serious peril. I think Guan Yu and Zhang Fei may have survived, but with them protecting Liu Bei they would probably have been cornered and slaughtered but whos to say. With Cao Cao dead, the biggest threat to Wei would defintely have come from Wu. Yuan Shao in my opinion was a lout and his sons would have swollwed him up eventually. Ma Teng and Chao are probably the wild cards. Not sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lord Yuan Shao on Mar 4, 2004 19:23:57 GMT -5
What a coincidence that Cao Cao always preserve his head,no?
This attempt for me was an interesting one,because after Liu Bei stopped Guan Yu, the Han was in the point of be lost.
After that incident, Only Dong Cheng and his few groups of loyals remained in favour of the Han.
What a golden chance wasted...thanks to the own Liu Bei,his empire never was too prosperous.Since the beggining.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lord Yuan Shao on Mar 4, 2004 19:42:16 GMT -5
Hmmm ........ what if? ;D I doubt the 3 brothers would have survived, though i'm sure they would have put up a good fight! As far as Guan Du is concerned Yuan Shao lost the battle not Cao Cao won the battle. He would probably have lost to Wei no matter who was in charge. I can't remember but did X.Dun lead much? Cao Ren would be an obvious choice - being a relative and high rating general. (but he lacked the perception of Cao Cao) The main benefactors would be Wu, Their would be 2 rival leaders both dead, Yuan Shao lacked the leadership to threaten and to Zhou Yu's delight Liu Bei would never have met Zhuge Liang!! You are wrong.We can clearly see that were other factors that left, bit to bit, the Yuan army demoralized. it was Guan Yu was destroyed, Yuan's van leaders, in 2 lucky strikes and with few men fighting in both examples...it was the indecisive nature of his advisors,not of the own Yuan the led him to many mistakes.The depot was attacked? And why was Chun Yuqiong and his men drunken? What could have been of 1/3 of Cao's army if Yan Liang and Liu Bei succed? When Guan Yu arrived to face Yan Liang , Cao Cao was eating his own fingers. The supply depot was attacked succesfully by the good advise of Xu You, ex advisor of Yuan Shao...this group of incidents was a chain reaction in Yuan's army , the burned depot achieved the treachery of Guo Tu and the later desertion of Zhang He...all was gradually, one disaster after another and all beggining with little mistakes made from some of his near greed advisors and his followers at the start of the battlefield taking. Yuan Shao lost, you say? No, I say: Someone has to lose a war.Because in any war there is always a loser.Maybe do you know of some war with 2 winners between two armies? And seeing all the times that Cao Cao could have been killed , I have to say that Cao's lucky was amazing. Ahh... poor Dong Cheng. |
|
|
|
Post by Iain on Mar 5, 2004 1:49:05 GMT -5
With Cao Cao gone a series of events I think would happen, the three brothers and probably the emperor himself would be killed in the ensuing chaos of Cao Cao's generals all seeking revenge, mind you a lot of good wei officers would die too there, Guan Yu, Zhang Fei and even Liu Bei(younger and braver) will not be pushovers.
I dont think a suitable leader for Wei could be found, Cao Pi was still a teenager and Cao Ren was not a very strategic general, after a while you are left with a bunch of average choices or Xu Zhu for leader perhaps..
Ma Teng, Yuan Shao and Yuan Shu would seize the chance to capture the capital and Wei would probably be wiped out leaderless and in disarray, meanwhile the amount of time it would take Wu to act and march on the capital, they would probably find a much changed territory with perhaps Yuan Shao as overlord, since he had the largest armies and Wen Chou, Yan Liang and Zhang He still with him.
So we could see a large Wu force faceing off a large Yuan Shao force in the end, the winner? Well perhaps I'll speculate that one later... ;D
|
|
|
|
Post by Sleipner on Mar 5, 2004 10:12:18 GMT -5
Y.Shao would not have been able to unify the land even with the Wei army defeated and the capital taken.
Y.Shao was indecisive, he couldn't identify between good and bad advice - and just with Cao Cao gone this wouldn't have changed the fact that Y.Shao never had complete control over his Army. (he didn't know how to take advantage of a position or how to overturn a disadvantageous situation).
At the time Wu still had enemies to contend with, but they would have spread out and obtained the lands that were to be held by the Shu Kingdom. (they had many able officers and may have even recuited others such as Wei Yan, Pang Tong, etc).
|
|
|
|
Post by Morg on Mar 6, 2004 5:59:54 GMT -5
If Guan Yu had cut down Cao Cao, he and Liu Bei would have been killed next. There is no doubt in that fact as the party at the hunt consisted mainly of Cao Cao's troops (IRC). From there, Wei would have gone one of two ways: 1. While Xiahou Dun was (I think) the highest ranking officer, he had very little support from his troops. Xiahou Yuan and Cao Ren would have been more favourable as successors to Mengde. However, I think that there would have been a partnership in leadership or even a council, just as when Li Jue and Guo Si ruled the capital. However, they would simply end up at war with each other and Wei would wipe itself out and be absorbed by Ma Teng or Yuan Shao. 2. Without leadership, Wei fall prey to Yuan Shao or Ma Teng and are absorbed. Either way, Yuan Shao or Ma Teng look to be in charge of the capital. After that I think that 3 kingdoms would still emerge, they would be Wu with the other two ruled by Ma Teng and Yuan Shao. Geographically, it would look a little different as Ma Teng would have the west of the country (including Shu), Yuan Shao would have the north east and Wu having the south west. Eventually Yuan Shao or Ma Teng would unite all but Wu and then there would simply be a stalemate until Yuan Shao/Ma Teng died. Yuan Shang and Yuan Tan would have probably ended up fighting each other again and that would have allowed Wu to invade and win. Ma Chao probably wouldn't have made a good leader either. Bear in mind that the north would have been ravaged by wars for years while the Southlands were relatively unscathed and would have provided better support for the army. So in short, Wu would have won  |
|
TigerLord
Fighter
Strength of the Inferno
Posts: 94
|
Post by TigerLord on Mar 6, 2004 19:05:15 GMT -5
If Guan Yu had cut down Cao Cao, he and Liu Bei would have been killed next. There is no doubt in that fact as the party at the hunt consisted mainly of Cao Cao's troops (IRC). From there, Wei would have gone one of two ways: 1. While Xiahou Dun was (I think) the highest ranking officer, he had very little support from his troops. Xiahou Yuan and Cao Ren would have been more favourable as successors to Mengde. However, I think that there would have been a partnership in leadership or even a council, just as when Li Jue and Guo Si ruled the capital. However, they would simply end up at war with each other and Wei would wipe itself out and be absorbed by Ma Teng or Yuan Shao. 2. Without leadership, Wei fall prey to Yuan Shao or Ma Teng and are absorbed. Either way, Yuan Shao or Ma Teng look to be in charge of the capital. After that I think that 3 kingdoms would still emerge, they would be Wu with the other two ruled by Ma Teng and Yuan Shao. Geographically, it would look a little different as Ma Teng would have the west of the country (including Shu), Yuan Shao would have the north east and Wu having the south west. Eventually Yuan Shao or Ma Teng would unite all but Wu and then there would simply be a stalemate until Yuan Shao/Ma Teng died. Yuan Shang and Yuan Tan would have probably ended up fighting each other again and that would have allowed Wu to invade and win. Ma Chao probably wouldn't have made a good leader either. Bear in mind that the north would have been ravaged by wars for years while the Southlands were relatively unscathed and would have provided better support for the army. So in short, Wu would have won I agree with your assessment except I'm not sure about Shu. I think they were fairly indepdenent and may have existed as a threatend indepdendent state. I truly just wonder where hereos like Huang Zhong would end up in that new world. Who do you think would eventually win the 3(4) kingdom war? I doubt Yuan Shao would have any success as a leader, and ive heard whoever owns the north plains will win china, but Wu has a large population and would of had Zhou Yu. |
|
|
|
Post by Sleipner on Mar 6, 2004 19:42:28 GMT -5
I have no doubt Wu would have won. You see Wu would have been able to take Jing if Liu Bei had not met Zhuge Liang, plus Yuan Shao (assuming he won the north) would not have pressed the south anywhere as near as much as Cao Cao did.
A stronger Wu would then use their many capable officers to obtain the north (plus factions may still be loyal to Wei - and the people would have wanted to be under the leadership of the Sun family rather then under Yuan Shao) then the West would have been only a matter of time.
|
|
|
|
Post by boogiepopmeup on Mar 7, 2004 10:19:49 GMT -5
well wu would definitely not have won, or are we forgetting that wu was strictly defensive until it was invaded. cao pi was about 12 at this time. wei probably could have survived under the advise of cao's many advisors. it prob could have survived long enough 4 yuan shao to die and his sons to begin quarrelling. after that wei is as strong as it was with just a slightly less able leader. and who knows liu bei might have stayed by the emperor's side, since he was the imperial uncle.
now there's another way to look at this. yuan shao and cao cao were friends, who's to say that his officers wouldn't want to serve him? and yuan shao was one of the emperor's greatest supporters:
liu bei prob would have joined yuan in restoring the han emperor. ma teng as well. yuan shao would prob have been happy w/ high rank 4 him and his family.
|
|
|
|
Post by Morg on Mar 7, 2004 11:15:51 GMT -5
I agree with your assessment except I'm not sure about Shu. I think they were fairly indepdenent and may have existed as a threatend indepdendent state. Without Liu Bei and Guan Yu (they would have been killed by Cao's men at the hunt) there couldn't have been a Shu-Han. The state of Shu (the place) had an incompetent governor and couldn't have lasted on it's own. I think the famous generals would end up either serving, or being killed by those who conquer their region. Therefore, Huang Zhong would be under Ma Teng or would be killed by him. Wu. They had great civil officers and Sun Quan was a great ruler. Stability counted for a lot more than the north. Exactly. The effect of war on the land needs to be considered too. After Cao Cao conquered the north, he abolished taxes for one year for the common folk because the land had been ravaged by warfare. The northerners had endured Yuan Shao fighting against Gongsun Zan and then later Cao Cao, so they needed the break. In the hypothetical scenario, this would still apply (obviously the second war would be Yuan Shao against Ma Teng) so the south would still be in a better position. well wu would definitely not have won, or are we forgetting that wu was strictly defensive until it was invaded. Wu were fairly aggressive but many of their campaigns were unsuccessful and didn't make it into the novel. There were about 6 attacks on He Fei by Wu, but only two were mentioned in the novel. They weren't the most aggressive of the kingdoms, but they certainly did their bit. In addition, there wasn't really an opportunity for Wu to invade the north other than Guandu, during which there was a rebellion in Wu. If presented with the right opportunity, Wu would take the aggressive side, I think. Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were friends before the officers joined Cao. They had only met Yuan Shao during the campaign against Dong Zhuo where Cao and Shao disagreed over strategies. Some of them would definitely end up with Yuan Shao but I don't think it would be out of friendship, more out of opportunity and stability. Bear in mind that in your quote he is talking about Emperor Bian, not Emperor Xian. Yuan Shao himself put Bian on the throne by force while accompanied by armed guards rather than let Xian take the throne as Emperor Ling wanted. Therefore his loyalty is a little questionable |
|
TigerLord
Fighter
Strength of the Inferno
Posts: 94
|
Post by TigerLord on Mar 8, 2004 10:36:07 GMT -5
well wu would definitely not have won, or are we forgetting that wu was strictly defensive until it was invaded. cao pi was about 12 at this time. wei probably could have survived under the advise of cao's many advisors. it prob could have survived long enough 4 yuan shao to die and his sons to begin quarrelling. after that wei is as strong as it was with just a slightly less able leader. and who knows liu bei might have stayed by the emperor's side, since he was the imperial uncle. now there's another way to look at this. yuan shao and cao cao were friends, who's to say that his officers wouldn't want to serve him? and yuan shao was one of the emperor's greatest supporters: liu bei prob would have joined yuan in restoring the han emperor. ma teng as well. yuan shao would prob have been happy w/ high rank 4 him and his family. The only thing I disagree with you on in the fact that I think Wu could have made a successful invasion regardless if they had been traditionally defensive in the past. Zhou Yu had plans to conquer Wei, his only problem was he had to deal with Zhuge Liang first which was where he died. Without Zhuge in the way, Jing would have fallen to Wu and the Wu kingdom would have been extended considerably and from there they could have used that as a springboard for a further attack. With Wei in chaos from Cao Cao being dead, and Cao Pi being 12, not to mention threats from Yuan Shao and Ma Teng, I think the northern plains would have been up for grabs and I don't think Yuan Shao or any of his sons were any match for Zhou Yu. As for my comment on the Shu state, I simply mean people like Yan Yan and Huang Zhong would have probably remained independent for a short time more. |
|
|
|
Post by boogiepopmeup on Mar 8, 2004 14:00:38 GMT -5
it wasn't just yuan shao who disagreed w/ cao
so with all that u have listed what makes u so sure wu would be aggressive? all u've shown is that when wu was aggressive, they failed.
so? when dong zhuo deposed bian and put xian up he was called a rebel and the chaos began
people keep overestimating wu, and underestimating the northern people. with all the talent in the north, not to mention the gr8 difference in pop and land, wu would have had a long struggle to get anywhere, let alone taking the north and the capital.
|
|
|
|
Post by Morg on Mar 9, 2004 6:45:03 GMT -5
it wasn't just yuan shao who disagreed w/ cao Absolutely. My point was that Cao's officers had only met Yuan Shao in a negative situation so they were unlikely to join him based on friendship. so with all that u have listed what makes u so sure wu would be aggressive? all u've shown is that when wu was aggressive, they failed. Wu didn't always fail, but they were consistently defeated at He Fei. I'll come back to why I think they would win. so? when dong zhuo deposed bian and put xian up he was called a rebel and the chaos began I think you are missing the point. Yuan Shao's big speech that was posted was not in support of Xian, it was in support of Bian. Xian is the Emperor at the point in time we are discussing and Yuan Shao had no proven loyalty to him. people keep overestimating wu, and underestimating the northern people. with all the talent in the north, not to mention the gr8 difference in pop and land, wu would have had a long struggle to get anywhere, let alone taking the north and the capital. The reason why people are giving Wu such favour is that Wu would have been stable for years while the north would have seen constant fighting. While the north had a massive population, constant fighting and the famines that happened there would have increased Wu's chances of success. By no means are Wu guaranteed to be successful, but against Yuan Shao and Ma Teng, they've got a very good chance. |
|
